Do Home Sales Really Slow Down Around Elections?

Not by much. Home sales drop in November almost every year, election or no election, and the national numbers show about the same drop either way. The one study I found that did measure an election dip put it at a fraction of a percent.

Lesa Miller is a REALTOR® and broker in Bloomington, Indiana, who helps buyers and sellers in Bloomington, Bedford, Martinsville and the surrounding towns. Here's what the research shows and what it means if you're thinking about moving.

Do sales drop in November of an election year?

Yes, and they drop in other years too. Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, looked at the National Association of REALTORS® monthly data in 2024:

• Presidential election years: November sales were down an average of 9.4%.

• Years without a presidential election: November sales were down an average of 9.8%.

Her conclusion: "data reveal no evidence of a slowdown in market activity during election years." These are national numbers for all existing homes, and she also cautioned that past years may not predict any one year.

What happens the year after an election?

Home sales rose the year after nine of the last 11 presidential elections, according to HUD and National Association of REALTORS® data reported by The Motley Fool in 2024. The two exceptions since 1978 were 1981 and 1989. That doesn't mean an election caused the rise. It means an election didn't stop it.

Does a midterm year change anything?

I couldn't find a study that measures midterm years on their own, so I won't pretend there is one.

The closest I found looks at state races. Brandice Canes-Wrone of Princeton and Jee-Kwang Park published a study in the British Journal of Political Science in 2014 that looked at 73 governor's races from 1999 to 2006. Coverage of the study puts the dip at two-tenths to three-tenths of a percent, and up to about half a percent in close races. Indiana isn't electing a governor this year.

So should you wait until after the election?

If an election is the only thing holding you back, I wouldn't let it decide. A job start date, a lease ending or an estate to settle will shape your move far more than a date on the ballot.

Season is a separate question from the election. Does Real Estate Really Slow Down in October? and Does Fall Still Work for Sellers in Bloomington and Bedford? cover that part. Does the Housing Market Really Slow Down Over Labor Day Weekend? looks at another myth like this one.

Frequently asked questions

Do home sales slow down during an election?

National numbers don't show much of one. November sales fell an average of 9.4% in presidential election years and 9.8% in other years, according to National Association of REALTORS® data cited by Bright MLS's chief economist.

Should I wait until after the election to buy or sell a house?

Not because of the election alone. Your own timing, like a job, a lease or an estate, usually matters more.

Do midterm elections affect home sales?

I couldn't find a study of midterm years on their own. A study of governor's races found a dip of a fraction of a percent, larger in close races.

Thinking about a move? Call or text (812) 360-3863, or visit LesaMillerRealEstate.com/Links.

This post is general information, not financial advice. Talk to your own advisor about your situation.